Causes of Default in Government Microcredit Programs: A Case Study of the Uasin Gishu District Trade Development Joint Loan Board Scheme, Kenya

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Causes of Default in Government Microcredit Programs: A Case Study of the Uasin Gishu District Trade Development Joint Loan Board Scheme, Kenya
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  Awarded Theses2007 Joint Japan/World Bank Graduate Scholarship Program THE WORLD BANK  Awarded Theses2007  Joint Japan/World Bank Graduate Scholarship Program World Bank InstituteWashington, DC  ©2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street, NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.orgEmail: feedback@worldbank.orgAll rights reservedThis volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The WorldBank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of theExecutive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomi-nations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The WorldBank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work withoutpermission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / TheWorld Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of thework promptly. ii  iii Contents Forewordvii1.Causes of Default in Government Microcredit Programs: ACase Study ofthe Uasin Gishu District Trade Development Joint Loan Board Scheme, Kenya1 Rose Ajiambo Bwonya-Wakuloba 2.Corruption Diagnostics: Prescribing a Reform Agenda for Indonesia21 Carolina Pondang Austria and Pratibha Krishnamurthy 3.Unemployment Compensation and the Risk of Unemployment: The Case of Argentina49  Ana Lucía Iturriza 4.Distributional Implications of Power Sector Reforms in the Philippines73 Wondielyn Q. Manalo-Macua 5.How to Improve Export Competitiveness in Mauritius99  Marilyn Whan-Kan 6.Export Performance and Economic Growth in Ethiopia117 Kagnew Wolde Acronyms and Abbreviations147 Box Box 2.1. Court Costs?39 Figures Figure 1.1. Age Distribution of Study Cohort11Figure 1.2. Repayment Delays among Study Cohort Slow Repayers12Figure 1.3. Causes of Default among Slow Repayers14Figure 1.4. Specific Causes of Default among Defaulters14Figure 1.5. Reasons for On-Time Repayment among UGLB Borrowers17Figure 1.6. Reasons for Eventual Repayment of the Loan by Slow Repayers17Figure 2.1. Dynamics of Rent and Risk on Corruption24Figure 2.2. Dynamics of Rent and Risk on Corruption—Ideal Scenario25Figure 2.3. Corruption Diagnostics Framework28Figure 2.4. Ratio of Net Fuel Exports to GDP, Selected Countries, 1996–200330Figure 2.5. Sophistication of Indonesia’s Exports, Relative to Selected Economies, 199230Figure 2.6. Corruption Perceptions Indexes for Indonesia, 1995–200533Figure 2.7. Foreign Direct Investment Flow within Indonesia, 1990–200234Figure 2.8. Uncertainty about Indonesia’s Legal Environment among Surveyed Firms, 200340Figure 2.9. Corruption Diagnostics Framework for Indonesia41Figure 3.1. Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates, by Classification69Figure 4.1. Philippines’ Deficit and Total Debt, 1999–200474Figure 4.2. National Government’s Support to Napocor, 1990–200474  Figure 4.3. Napocor’s Net Income vs. Long-Term Debt, 1990–200275Figure 4.4. Napocor’s Average Power Rate vs. Return on Rate Base, 1990–200275Figure 4.5. Budget Constraint with Fixed Payment77Figure 4.6. Mean Compensating Variation88Figure 4.7. Mean Percentage Loss Using Parameters from Demand Estimates of AllObservations88Figure 4.8. Mean Percentage Loss Using Parameters from Per-Quartile Demand Estimation88Figure 5.1. Unit Labor Cost Index for Manufacturing and Export Sectors, 1982–2002102Figure 5.2. Terms-of-Trade Index for Mauritius, 1990–2003102Figure 5.3. REER Indexes for Mauritius, 1970/80–2002103Figure 5.4. EPI, Selected Countries, 1991–2002105Figure 6.1. Export-Income Link123 Tables Table 1.1. Performance of Joint Loan Board Programs, 2000–043Table 1.2. Performance of the UGLB, 2001–053Table 1.3. Rural Enterprise Fund Outstanding Balances, 1995–20004Table 1.4. Loan Disbursements and Repayments by the District Poverty Eradication Program,Selected Groups, 2002–044Table 1.5. Descriptive Statistics on Repayment Delays among Slow Repayers13Table 1.6. UGLB’s Repayment and Default Rates, Study Years13Table 1.7. Household Characteristics of UGLB Defaulters15Table 1.8. Relationships between Household Characteristics and Causes of Default15Table 1.9. Comparison of Causes of Default between Slow Repayers and Defaulters16Table 2.1. Control of Publicly Traded Companies in East Asia, 199632Table 2.2. Sectors Controlled by Government Agency or SOE, Indonesia, Pre-199732Table 2.3. Total Foreign Investment Approval, 1997–200234Table 2.4. Findings of the Investment Climate Survey of Business Perceptions35Table 2.5. Dean’s Classification of the Segments of Indonesian Society35Table 2.6. World Bank/Kaufmann Indicators for Indonesia, Selected Years36Table 2A.1. Global Integrity Scorecard, Indonesia44Table 3.1. Argentine Labor Market Indicators, Selected Years, 1991–200352Table 3.2. Benefits: Unemployment Insurance53Table 3.3. Unemployment Insurance Recipients, 1994–200553Table 3.4. Benefits: Unemployment Assistance54Table 3.5. Unemployment Assistance Recipients, 2002–0554Table 3.6. Observations Forming the Study Data Set60Table 3.7. Labor Market Status, Classification 1, October 200260Table 3.8. Transitions Out of Unemployment, Classification 1, October 2002–May 200361Table 3.9. Labor Market Status, Classification 2, October 200261Table 3.10. Transitions Out of Unemployment, Classification 2, October 2002–May 200362Table 3.11. Statistics Describing the Unemployed Population in the Panel, October 200262Table 3.12. Unemployment Compensation and Unemployment Risk, Classification 165Table 3.13. Unemployment Compensation and Unemployment Risk, Classification 268Table 3.14. Percentile Distribution of Exits from Unemployment, by Classification, May 200370Table 4.1. Regional Classification82Table 4.2. Number of Observations, Mean Electricity Expenditure, and Mean ElectricityConsumption, by Income Quartile84Table 4.3. Price Schedule: Minimum kWh and Marginal Price84Table 4.4. Regression Results for All Observations85Table 4.5. Comparison of Three-Step and OLS Demand Estimations86 ivContents
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