CORE Working Paper 17

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    Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Identifying the Cutting Edge: The Future Impact of the OSCE Wolfgang Zellner in consultation with Pál Dunay Victor-Yves Ghebali P. Terrence Hopmann Sinikukka Saari Andrei Zagorski and experts at the Centre for OSCE Research, Hamburg Working Paper 17   2This report is a collective effort. It was written by Dr Wolfgang Zellner, Head of CORE (Hamburg), in consultation with an international task force consisting of Dr Pál Dunay, Geneva Centre for Security Policy Prof. Victor-Yves Ghebali, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva Prof. P. Terrence Hopmann, Department of Political Science, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA Dr Sinikukka Saari, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Helsinki Dr Andrei Zagorski, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Additional support in the form of brainstorming, proofreading, and editing was also provided  by a team of CORE experts, consisting of Graeme Currie, Dr Frank Evers, Elizabeth Hormann, Dr Martin Kahl, Dr Anna Kreikemeyer, and Ursel Schlichting, M.A. The text of the report was discussed in detail at workshops in Hamburg on 20-22 July and 26-28 October 2007. CORE gratefully acknowledges the initiative taken by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs as well as its financial support, which made it possible to produce this report. CORE also wishes to thank the members of the international task force for their comprehensive criticism and inspiring suggestions, and Dr Ian Mitchell for his insights and ideas.   3 Contents Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 8 2. The Impact of Change on the OSCE 10 2.1 Global Change: The Challenge of Inter-Cultural and Inter-Religious Dialogue 10 2.2 Change within the OSCE Area: The Re-emergence of a Political East and West 11 2.3 Change in Adjacent Areas: Violent Conflicts and New Chances for Co-operation 15 2.4 Change within the OSCE as an Organization 15 2.5 Consequences for a Strategy of Revitalizing the OSCE 17 3. Concrete Undertakings for Strengthening the Future Impact of the OSCE 20 3.1 Addressing New Politico-Military Tensions in Europe 20 3.2 Initiating a Dialogue on the Common Substance and Different Forms of Democracy 22 3.3 Developing the OSCE’s Contribution to the Alliance of Civilizations Initiative 25 3.4 Assisting States in Security Sector Reform: Border Security and Policing 27 3.4.1 Starting Border Security and Management Projects in Central Asia 27 3.4.2 Strengthening the Capacities of the Strategic Police Matters Unit in Providing Guidance, Lessons-Learned, Training, and Co-operation 29 3.5 Securing the Future of the OSCE’s Presence in the Field 30 3.6 Intensifying Co-operation with the OSCE’s Asian Partners for Co-operation 32 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 34 List of Abbreviations 38   4 Executive Summary Under current conditions, identifying the cutting edge of    the future impact of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) means nothing less than effective protection of its core principles: Common and co-operative security, shared norms and commitments including those in the human dimension, and inclusive dialogue. These principles are now in acute danger. The gravity of the OSCE’s present situation lies in the fact that its two key dimensions have come under serious pressure simultaneously. Although not explicitly revoked, the OSCE’s normative acquis , particularly in the human dimension, is increasingly being challenged by a number of participating States. States are no longer able to agree on the meaning of key norms such as democracy and human rights. At the same time, the Organization’s co-operative security policy is being undermined by a renaissance of unilateral military thinking in a number of participating States, particularly the Russian Federation and the USA. The very existence of the OSCE’s politico-military dimension is threatened by the impending collapse of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The situation of the OSCE can no longer be called an adaptation crisis arising from a changed  political environment and a new set of tasks. Rather it is a crisis of both political substance and moral legitimacy. At stake are the very foundations of the Organization. The main strategic consequence of this aggravated state of the OSCE is that there is no viable option for a gradual, intermediate strategy. Over the last few years, the participating States have followed a business-as-usual approach because they could not agree on key political issues. If they continue this approach, it will inevitably lead to the further stagnation and marginalization of the Organization. The only viable alternative is to make a serious attempt to create a new basic consensus among the participating States on the future substance of the OSCE’s politico-military and human dimensions, including trade-offs between these two dimensions, comparable to the  package-deals of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) period  before 1990. Consequently, the principal recommendation of this report is that the participating States should engage in serious open-ended consultations leading to negotiations on the OSCE’s  politico-military and human dimension agendas. Although the two consultation processes could be conducted in different formats, they would be politically interlinked. All other recommendations presented in this report serve the purpose of supporting this principal policy line and keeping the Organization active until a new basic consensus has been reached.
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